2027: El-Rufai’s coalition faces hurdles as APC gains ground in political arena
By Uji A Iliyasu
As the political landscape in Nigeria shifts ahead of the 2027 general elections, former Kaduna State governor, Malam Nasiru el-Rufai, is facing mounting challenges in his bid to form a formidable coalition capable of unseating the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027.
There have been defections to the ruling party from unlikely quarters since el-Rufai joined the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and unveiled his plan to form a merger with opposition parties ahead of 2027 general elections. Amid a wave of high-profile defections to the APC, questions arise regarding the viability and sustainability of el-Rufai’s ambitious coalition.
Coalition under pressure
As el-Rufai remains undaunted form a coalition to challenge the APC in 2027, political observers suggest that his plan is under threat due to the ongoing gale of defections to the ruling APC. With key figures in opposition strongholds now aligning with the APC, el-Rufai faces the challenge of maintaining momentum and securing credible candidates to represent the coalition.
Snce the 2023 elections, the APC has solidified its position, attracting influential figures from major opposition parties such as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). Senator Ned Nwoko from Delta North, Mukhtar Ramalan Yero of Kaduna State, and Ifeanyi Nworie from Ebonyi State are among the early defectors, citing leadership disputes and party disunity as their primary reasons for leaving the parties that brought them to office.
In a notable development, Abdulraman Samaila Kawu, the senator representing Kano South under the NNPP, also announced his defection to the APC, declaring that NNPP is “severely divided and dysfunctional.”
Kawu said the party’s internal crises, factional leadership, and existence of multiple logos have made it unviable, prompting his decision to join the ruling party.
With the APC aggressively consolidating power and el-Rufai struggling to maintain coalition integrity, the outcome of the upcoming election may well hinge on how effectively el-Rufai can counter the ruling party’s momentum and maintain a united front amidst a storm of defections.
South-South
El-Rufai’s coalition also faces a formidable challenge in the South-South region, where Governor Oborevwori and former Governor Okowa’s defection to the APC has significantly weakened the opposition’s base. The South-South had historically been a stronghold for the PDP, and el-Rufai’s coalition will need to recalibrate its strategy to regain lost grounds.
Earlier, Delta State governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, alongside his predecessor Ifeanyi Okowa and other state lawmakers, officially defected to the APC, citing the need to “connect to Abuja” and align with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration. Okowa emphasised that the decision was taken for the “common good of the state”, expressing regret that the opposition status had hindered access to federal resources during his tenure.
Daniel Bwala, Special Adviser to President Tinubu on Media and Policy Communications, predicted that Labour Party’s Peter Obi would soon join the APC. Bwala argued that the movement of Obi’s key allies, including Valentine Ozigbo, was a clear indication of an imminent defection. “We are emptying the Labour Party,” Bwala boasted, suggesting that the opposition was losing ground rapidly to the ruling party
Also. there has been rumours of likely defection of Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, 2023 presidential candidate on the platform of NNPP, to the ruling APC.
Strategies that’ll work for el-Rufa’i
Political analysts have identified three critical areas for el-Rufai to focus on in order to achieve his aim of forming a merger party that will challenge APC in 2027 despite the defections coming from unlikely quarters.
Candidate selection
The APC’s success in attracting influential politicians has significantly reduced the pool of credible candidates for el-Rufai’s coalition. He must identify charismatic, financially capable, and ideologically aligned figures who can resist the lure of the APC’s growing political machinery. This task is particularly daunting, as many of the remaining opposition figures lack the financial muscle to compete against APC candidates backed by federal resources.
Strategic messaging
To effectively counter the APC’s dominance, the coalition must articulate a compelling narrative that addresses critical issues such as economic instability, insecurity, and corruption, and also focusing on infrastructural development and education. These could serve as a potent campaign tool. However, the coalition must also differentiate itself by offering concrete policy alternatives that resonate with voters across regional and socio-economic lines.
Grassroots mobilisation
The APC has leveraged its access to federal resources to intensify grassroots outreach, especially in areas perceived as strongholds of the opposition. To counter this, el-Rufai’s coalition must build a formidable grassroots network, engaging with local leaders, traditional rulers, and civil society organisations to foster inclusivity and counter the APC’s narrative.
Atiku reacts
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, reacting to the defections, asserted that freedom of association remains a core democratic right and should not be interpreted as betrayal.
“Defections are part of Nigeria’s evolving political culture and must not be seen as a direct threat to democracy,” he noted. He added that political alignments are fluid and should not be viewed as acts of disloyalty.
Platform for personal ambition
For the opposition. the APC’s aggressive media campaign and political messaging have portrayed the party as the only viable political platform for ambitious politicians pursuing personal interests. This perception is further reinforced by the party’s dominance in key states, where it continues to wield influence through a network of loyalists and political aides.
At the grassroots level, APC supporters have been mobilising support through targeted outreach programmes, leveraging federal resources to secure loyalty. The coalition, political analysts say, must counter this by presenting itself as a viable alternative, focusing on issues such as youth unemployment, education reform, and economic diversification.
In the coming months, el-Rufai’s coalition will need to demonstrate that it can withstand the political storm and emerge as a credible opposition force. This will require not only strategic coordination but also effective communication, clear policy articulation, and a strong grassroots presence.
One-party state concerns
As the APC continues to absorb prominent opposition figures, there are growing concerns among analysts that Nigeria may be heading towards a one-party state, a scenario detrimental to democratic principles. One-party states often lacks checks and balances, stifling dissent and limiting political competition. Globally, examples such as China, where the Communist Party maintains total control, and North Korea, under the Workers’ Party, illustrate how power consolidation can erode democratic processes. Similarly, in Russia, the ruling United Russia Party has effectively curtailed opposition through electoral manipulation and media control, posing significant challenges to democratic governance.
Will APC succeed?
If the APC succeeds in dominating Nigeria’s political space to the extent that the opposition is rendered ineffective, the country risks undermining its democratic fabric. Effective democracy thrives on diverse political voices, robust opposition, and competitive elections.
Coalition can win without governors
Malam el-Rufai, says the opposition coalition can defeat the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027 without support from governors. Speaking to journalists in Kano, el-Rufai said the coalition’s strategy should be focused on grassroots mobilisation rather than courting political bigwigs.
Adding to el-Rufai’s hurdles is that
the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governors’ forum recently rejected any alliance or merger talks, but el-Rufai remains undaunted.
“We are trying to offer Nigerians a real alternative — something different from what they have seen before,” el- Rufai said.
“A governor has only one vote. Nigerians have many more votes than one governor or even 36 governors combined.
“It doesn’t matter if you gather all the governors together; if the people of Nigeria say they are not with you, it is over.
“The president had a sitting governor in Lagos — and still lost Lagos. So, what is the real value of a governor?
“I was the governor of Kaduna state. I fought hard to deliver President Tinubu in my state, but I lost. That taught me a hard lesson — that elections are ultimately decided by the people, not by political figures.”
He asked the Social Democratic Party (SDP), his new political platform, to reinforce the message to Nigerians.
El-Rufai also said the coalition’s original plan did not include uniting with the main opposition party.
“From the beginning, our intention was never to merge with the PDP. We have been very clear about that. The PDP is a spent force. It is a party targeted for destruction, and, frankly, it has almost succeeded,” he said.
“We are not looking at political parties that are already ravaged by internal conflicts. We are building something fresh, something that will inspire hope.
“When Nigerians look at the faces involved, they will hopefully say: ‘Yes, maybe this time it will be different’. That is the goal, and it is ongoing,” el-Rufai said.
Harping on the need for an inclusive platform free from individual control, he pointed out that previous parties failed due to weak internal democracy and dominance by powerful figures.
Goodluck Ebele
Former President Goodluck Jonathan has warned against the covert establishment of a one-party system in Nigeria, cautioning that such a move could destabilise the nation’s fragile democracy.
“‘Backdoor’ one-party state dangerous for Nigeria,”Jonathan warned
Speaking at a memorial lecture held in honour of the late elder statesman, Chief Edwin Clark, in Abuja on Wednesday, Jonathan emphasised the dangers of political manipulation aimed at sidelining opposition parties.
The former President noted that while countries like Tanzania practise a one-party system, it was properly planned for, stressing that Nigeria’s complex ethnic, religious, and political landscape necessitates a more inclusive political framework.
“Yes, a one-party state may not be evil after all, because Julius Nyerere of Tanzania used a one-party state to stabilise his country in the early days of independence.
“Yes, a one-party state may not be evil after all, because Julius Nyerere of Tanzania used a one-party state to stabilise his country in the early days of independence.
“He felt that the country, just like Nigeria, had too many tribes and tongues, and two principal religions—Christianity and Islam. If we allow multiple parties, some may follow religious lines, others tribal, and unity will be difficult. But it was properly planned; it was not by accident.
“If we must, as a nation, adopt a one-party system, then it must be designed, planned by experts—and we must know what we are getting into. But if we arrive at it through the backdoor by political manipulations, then we are heading for a crisis,” he said.
Earlier. a coalition of opposition leaders led by former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar; the presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 elections, Peter Obi; former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir el-Rufai; and former National Vice-Chairman North-West of the All Progressives Congress (APC) have resolved to work together to wrest power from President Bola Tinubu and the ruling party.
The coming together of the aggrieved members of the ruling APC, elements from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), members of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), as well as the LP was similar to what was witnessed in 2013, which subsequently metamorphosed into the APC. The coming into being of the APC nailed the coffin of the then ruling party, the PDP.
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